TheoryCRAFTING: New Life Festival Boxes

TheoryCRAFTING is a series of short articles and YouTube videos where I examine Elder Scrolls Online theories, crafting, and or both.


In this article, we investigate the drop rate of the items found in ESO New Life Festival Boxes.

This information will be useful for players interested in knowing what the probability of certain drops are for items found in these boxes.

While collecting data for this article, I opened over 210 New Life reward boxes (2019-2020).

Find written guides TL;DR? Check out the 4 minute video version of this guide on YouTube


When you complete a New Life Festival daily, a New Life Reward box is awarded.
These boxes contain items from 8 broad categories:

  1. Crafting Materials
  2. Skinchanger Motif Style item
  3. Disposable Event Consumables
  4. New Life Provisioning Recipes
  5. Skinchanger Motif Chapters
  6. Writs
  7. Furniture Items
  8. Runeboxes.

Crafting Materials

This category included crafting materials used for various crafting professions.
There is always a crafting item awarded and the chart shows the drop rate of the various items.

Most Common:
Rose (15.2%)
Honey (14.8%)
Saltrice (10.5%)


Skinchanger Style Item

This category tracked the drop rate of the Skinchanger style item, Wolfsbane Incense.
It was always awarded.


Disposable Event Items

This category included event related consumables. These include Mudballs, Swallowing Swords, Juggling Knives, and Fire-Breather’s Oil. One of these items is always awarded.

Most Common:
Disposable Juggling Knives (32.4%)
Rarest: Mudball (21.9%)


New Life Recipes

This category included event related recipes.

  • Alcaire Festival Sword-Pie
  • Old Aldmeri Orphan Gruel
  • Rajhin’s Sugar Claws
  • Jagga-Drenched “Mud Ball”
  • Lava Foot Soup-and-Saltrice
  • Snow Bear Glow-Wine
  • Betnikh Twice-Spiked Ale
  • Bergama Warning Fire
  • Hissmir Fish-Eye Rye

Most Common:
Old Aldmeri Orphan Gruel

Hissmir Fish-Eye Rye / Betnikh Twice-Spiked Ale (2.4%)

Chance of Recipe: 38.6%


Skinchanger Motif Chapters

This category tracked the drop rates of the various motif chapters.

Most Common:
Boots (2.9%)

Swords, Shoulders, Chests (1.4%)

Chance of Motif Chapter: 17.7%


New Life and Deep Winter Writs

This category tracked the drop rates of the various event crafting writs:
New Life and Deep Winter.

Chance of getting a writ: 22.4%


New Life Furnishings

This category tracked the drop rates of furnishings.

Chance of obtaining a New Life Furnishing: 7.6%



This category tracked the drop rates of the various runeboxes.

Most Common:
Sword-Swallower’s Blade, Juggler’s Knives (3.8%)

Colovian Fur Hood (0.5%)

Chance of a Runebox: 13.9%



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